Why there is no consensus
cNN has taken a very strong position on global warming that it is a consensus well there is no consensus and science isn’t a vote, science is about thanks but you look the results of this survey of 11,000 994 papers in the scientific literature published between 1999-2002 year they said 97% and read that human are causing global warming in fact they say we are the calls we would indifferences we would say we are a court but we have 100% consensus now what would you do
closer look at this particular surver are nearly finished, what are you doing well she has no prior notice and I think you stood up very well and under this onslaught now on the slide you can see there now you will see three separate definitions of consensus
The first one, that human can be causing some warming the definitely, or pasta agree with we have a bunch now the next census is that most of the recent global warming since 1950 was cause by us
That was their definition of consensus is the same at the IPCC’s definition of text it’s the official definition of time consensus that we are responsible for most of the warming since 1950 now I’m not going to ask your view on that because good scientists you don’t have one, it might or might not be true
But let us therefore look at how they managed to present what actually a naught 3% consensus in the review literature on the question as 97.1% consensus
The first thing is they eliminated two third of all the paper they were looking at on the grounds that they hadn’t express an opinion that is not normally how these surveys a number that’s what they did they not theirs and then they congregated together there levels of endorsement only one of which was the majoritarian document that most of the warming since 1950 was cause by us they love that with the explicit or implicit endorsement of the consensus that we all agree with that maybe we have contributed some warming we don’t know how much they put all those together and by conflating these two completely different definitions of consensus they claimed there was this consensus of 97.1% he said that most of the warming society they said so in there paper and they said so in a subsequent paper commenting Alma, present in with my good friend David Lee gates will soon and matt briggs and I got together did the math and published a paper in science and education showing what the true theater was that the truth began to severe