Over the past several years, a handful of reliable surveys have asked a representative sample of the Thai population about political matters. The overwhelming majority state that they have faith in electoral democracy, are happy with constitutional monarchy, have no problem with peaceful demonstrations, and would like the army and members of the privy council to keep out of politics.
At the same time, the most recent of these surveys shows that both Red shirts and yellow shirts have significant base of support. The challenge for Thailand lies in getting these movements off the street and into representative institutions so that their clashing views on reform can be debated with words and ideas, not crude weaponry.
The Red shirt movement is an attack on Thailand’s power structure. It is not an attack on business, or on the capitalist system. Although its support is based largely in certain classes, it has no enemy class that it wants to tear down.
Although this turmoil has on for more than five years now, its impact on the economy so far has been muted. In the first quarter of 2010, the economy rebounded from the global slump by growing at a rate of 12 per cent; that rate seemed unsustainable. Tourism in particular was put a serious risk. But manufacturing was not directly disrupted, and exports are doing fine. Predictions for the full year’s growth remained around 6 per cent.
The killing and burning at the end of the May 2010 outburst are the most searing images left in our minds. But it is worth recalling what had happened in the prior weeks Tens of thousands of people poured into the capital. They were very good-natured, had very reasonable demands and mostly had no interest in violence. They were welcomed by many Bangkok people – not only their brothers and cousins among the rural-urban migrants, but also typical Bangkok salary men and salary women. Even when the city became badly disrupted by the demonstration, and when a minority vented their abuse in counter-demos and in cyberspace, an opinion poll showed massive opposition against the government using violence to clear the protest.
Over the past several years, a handful of reliable surveys have asked a representative sample of the Thai population about political matters. The overwhelming majority state that they have faith in electoral democracy, are happy with constitutional monarchy, have no problem with peaceful demonstrations, and would like the army and members of the privy council to keep out of politics.
At the same time, the most recent of these surveys shows that both Red shirts and yellow shirts have significant base of support. The challenge for Thailand lies in getting these movements off the street and into representative institutions so that their clashing views on reform can be debated with words and ideas, not crude weaponry.
Over the past several years, a handful of reliable surveys have asked a representative sample of the Thai population about political matters. The overwhelming majority state that they have faith in electoral democracy, are happy with constitutional monarchy, have no problem with peaceful demonstrations, and would like the army and members of the privy council to keep out of politics.At the same time, the most recent of these surveys shows that both Red shirts and yellow shirts have significant base of support. The challenge for Thailand lies in getting these movements off the street and into representative institutions so that their clashing views on reform can be debated with words and ideas, not crude weaponry.The Red shirt movement is an attack on Thailand’s power structure. It is not an attack on business, or on the capitalist system. Although its support is based largely in certain classes, it has no enemy class that it wants to tear down.Although this turmoil has on for more than five years now, its impact on the economy so far has been muted. In the first quarter of 2010, the economy rebounded from the global slump by growing at a rate of 12 per cent; that rate seemed unsustainable. Tourism in particular was put a serious risk. But manufacturing was not directly disrupted, and exports are doing fine. Predictions for the full year’s growth remained around 6 per cent.The killing and burning at the end of the May 2010 outburst are the most searing images left in our minds. But it is worth recalling what had happened in the prior weeks Tens of thousands of people poured into the capital. They were very good-natured, had very reasonable demands and mostly had no interest in violence. They were welcomed by many Bangkok people – not only their brothers and cousins among the rural-urban migrants, but also typical Bangkok salary men and salary women. Even when the city became badly disrupted by the demonstration, and when a minority vented their abuse in counter-demos and in cyberspace, an opinion poll showed massive opposition against the government using violence to clear the protest.Over the past several years, a handful of reliable surveys have asked a representative sample of the Thai population about political matters. The overwhelming majority state that they have faith in electoral democracy, are happy with constitutional monarchy, have no problem with peaceful demonstrations, and would like the army and members of the privy council to keep out of politics.At the same time, the most recent of these surveys shows that both Red shirts and yellow shirts have significant base of support. The challenge for Thailand lies in getting these movements off the street and into representative institutions so that their clashing views on reform can be debated with words and ideas, not crude weaponry.
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