The two clusters of factors form the basis of the scenario development. One cluster is placed on the horizontal axis and the other on the vertical axis. The clusters are used in extremes. As shown in Figure 3.13below the two driving forces are: The spatial change in production and consumption process, ranging from local / regional to global production and consumption (e.g. in China; India, Brazil). The second force refers to the economic prospects of Europe - ranging from a stagnant to a very dynamic and prosperous economic development.
It enables us to define four scenarios (cf Figure 3.13):
Scenario I: Prosperous Europe in a globalised world (right-hand upper corner);
Scenario II Prosperous & isolated Europe (left-hand upper corner);
Scenario III Stagnating and isolated Europe (left-hand lower corner);
Scenario IV Stagnating Europe in a globalised world (right-hand lower corner).
Each scenario is developed in its own way. Based on the underlying assumptions, described for the specific scenario, the logistic strategies and trends are subsequently assessed according to their probable change in respect to the scenario, if influenced at all.