“All that glitters is not gold” is a proverb use to depict that not everything that looks attractive is not so, in reality.
This yellow metal has grab lot of attention for every class of people as investment purpose.
People investing in gold have mainly two primary objectives, one being it is a hedge against inflation as over a period of time, the return on gold investment is in line with the rate of inflation, next to mix your investment basket and hence diversify the risk and will help you reduce the overall volatility of your portfolio.
Investing in gold have evolved over a period of time for traditional ways by buying jewelries or by modern way as purchasing gold coins and bars (which is available in scheduled banks nowadays) or by investing in Gold Exchange traded fund (Gold ETF). Gold ETF is in financial instrument of mutual fund in nature which in turn invests in gold and these are listed in a stock index. Gold Fund of Funds and Equity based Gold Funds are other instrument where investor can choose to invest in Gold having some variation like Gold Fund of Funds is an investment made on behalf of the investor without holding a Demat account and Equity based Gold Funds are investment which are not made directly in Gold, but investing in the companies, which are related to the mining, extracting and marketing of the Gold.
Importance of the yellow metal has changed over a period of time. In India few thousands of years ago, countless Kings & Emperor, the then rulers of land in different parts of the country having different monetary system, but only Gold was treated as common exchange commodity.
India is known to demand of gold mainly for jewelry fabrication where it makes in the top list of imports of gold as the production of gold in India for mining activities is very limited, but in our country the demand for the yellow metal is seasonal and are high during wedding season, Post harvest season and festival season and demand are down during monsoon season. As of today the exchange (National Stock Exchange & Bombay Stock Exchange) has introduced different instrument linked with Gold investment to simplify to purchase of gold from exchange without forgoing with different charges associated with purchase of jewelries which ultimately reduces the return of investors while investment in yellow metal, so it is important for investors to be well informed about fluctuation in the price so that he can take wise decision in investing in Gold. Hence this paper gives an insight of forecasting of Gold price through time-series ARIMA model.