Just to clarify, instead of the revision that you have made in the file for the Incurred BF method, the formula should be:
Incurred BF Ultimate Loss = Incurred claims + [ % Unreported x Earned Premium x Expected Loss Ratio ]
The reason for using this method is that we want take into consideration the claims incurred to date, but not using it to project future claims. Instead, the future claims is projected by using the priori expectation (in many cases, this would be the based on the ULR of previous AYs).
Back to the compilation, as raised up to you last Friday, the reason for the discrepancy in the Ultimate Loss using the Incurred Chain Ladder method is due to the formula error in the worksheet, which I believe you have revised the worksheet for future use. The reason of getting you to keep the original worksheet (with wrong formula) is because that was the worksheet that generated the results submitted to and accepted by client and OIC.
We have to always bear in mind that the sets of results that we gave to the client MUST RECONCILE with each other. Therefore, I have made some revision, either to do some rounding to the LDF or the resulted ultimate loss; or to change the method used – so that the resulted ultimate loss is the same as what we had submitted to AIOI previously. They are highlighted orange in the Gross_Use tab for your reference. I will send this to Jeremy, by the way, has the meeting been arranged?