More quantitative techniques are discussed here as well. Le Roux, Shinnawl, and Rubin (2003) compare traditional factor-based models with structural credit models, particularly the Merton (1974) model. They also highlight the important distinction between individual credits versus a portfolio of credits and correlation among credits as a key discussion point. Das, Fong and Geng, as summarized by Horan (2002), find that ignoring correlation of defaults, and therefore the skewness and kurtosis of the loss distribution, would underestimate the risk of extreme outcomes. Leland, as summarized by Sullivan (2005), finds that studied structural models "underpredict defaults and yield spreads.” Arora, Bohn, and Zhu, summarized by Phelps (2006), discuss the Merton model, Vasicek-Kealhofer and a reduced form model by Hull-White. The paper concludes that the Merton model underperforms the other two. Bernard and Chen (2007) explore the interaction between regulatory requirements and the varying risk management strategies of an insurance company using a theoretical Merton model and make the point that the market valuation of liability contracts that ignore risk management strategies will be too low. Hui (2008) discusses the difficulties in modeling mortgage-backed securities (MBS) defaults and problems with historical data. Indeed, data reliability issues are the principal reason why one might prefer structural models as compared to reduced form models. Risk factors and reduced form approaches are present as well. Boudreault and Gauthier (2010) present a multi-name hybrid credit risk model where the default of each company is highly related to how elements of its capital structure evolve over time, how assets and liabilities of insurers are linked across firms, and possible resulting contagion effects. Rosen and Saunders (2010) study the contributions to the risk of a portfolio using risk factors rather than particular issuers, as has been done traditionally.
Finally, several papers provide cautions regarding modeling. Klein et al.
More quantitative techniques are discussed here as well. Le Roux, Shinnawl, and Rubin (2003) compare traditional factor-based models with structural credit models, particularly the Merton (1974) model. They also highlight the important distinction between individual credits versus a portfolio of credits and correlation among credits as a key discussion point. Das, Fong and Geng, as summarized by Horan (2002), find that ignoring correlation of defaults, and therefore the skewness and kurtosis of the loss distribution, would underestimate the risk of extreme outcomes. Leland, as summarized by Sullivan (2005), finds that studied structural models "underpredict defaults and yield spreads.” Arora, Bohn, and Zhu, summarized by Phelps (2006), discuss the Merton model, Vasicek-Kealhofer and a reduced form model by Hull-White. The paper concludes that the Merton model underperforms the other two. Bernard and Chen (2007) explore the interaction between regulatory requirements and the varying risk management strategies of an insurance company using a theoretical Merton model and make the point that the market valuation of liability contracts that ignore risk management strategies will be too low. Hui (2008) discusses the difficulties in modeling mortgage-backed securities (MBS) defaults and problems with historical data. Indeed, data reliability issues are the principal reason why one might prefer structural models as compared to reduced form models. Risk factors and reduced form approaches are present as well. Boudreault and Gauthier (2010) present a multi-name hybrid credit risk model where the default of each company is highly related to how elements of its capital structure evolve over time, how assets and liabilities of insurers are linked across firms, and possible resulting contagion effects. Rosen and Saunders (2010) study the contributions to the risk of a portfolio using risk factors rather than particular issuers, as has been done traditionally.Finally, several papers provide cautions regarding modeling. Klein et al.
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