While companies and governments prepare a mid-continent transportation corridor from Mexico City to Winnipeg, some thoughts are turning toward an extension north to Churchill, Manitoba, and the open saltwater of Canada’s Hudson Bay.
According to the Arctic research group, Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS) at the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, the once Great White North is changing colors, exchanging white ice for deep blue saltwater.
On average, the Arctic Ocean has been losing an area of sea ice equivalent to the size of Lake Superior each year since 1980. Ice-free summers will most likely arrive in less than 15 years.
Implications are Huge
The shipping season for bulk commodities is lengthening, says David Babb, a sea ice scientist and CEOS research associate.
“We’re seeing real change in the timing of sea ice formation during fall and an increase in the potential for fall shipping,” Babb says. “Shipping times will align better with fall grain harvests.”
The port opens in early August and runs for seven to nine weeks. With continuing warming, climate models project that by midcentury, the Port of Churchill shipping season may reach into December.
Changes won’t be easy or without controversy. Babb recently completed a CEOS study of vulnerabilities and opportunities for marine transport through the Port of Churchill.
He concludes that development will be controversial at every step, but with continued reductions in the Hudson Bay ice pack, it can be expected to proceed in our lifetime.
Arctic Gold Rush
David Barber, Canada research chair in Arctic System Science, says, “This is really an Arctic gold rush.” That’s how he described a relatively near-future polar region warmed up by climate change and popping with trade potential when he spoke to the 2013 annual meeting of one interest group, the Hudson Bay Route Association (HBRA).
The HBRA’s primary interest is wheat and the thin 627-mile line of light steel rail linking to the Port of Churchill.
For decades, grain from the southern prairies has been the only major bulk commodity carried north to the port. Annual shipment is 400,000 tonnes of grain.
In theory, improved land access could enable Churchill to become the New Orleans of the North. It would be the northern terminus to the midcontinent transport corridor, exporting many bulk commodities to the world and importing other commodities for the interior of North America.
According to Barber, the Arctic Gold Rush and climate change is pressurizing Manitoba’s bottleneck to port trade. Here are four points he presented to the HBRA.
From 2010 to 2013, some 1,200 tourist ships went through the Northwest Passage.
The Murmansk-to-Churchill ocean route can be kept open by ice breakers, if there is a will to do it.
The government of Canada is starting to develop a second Arctic deep-water port.
Private sector proposals have been made for three more Arctic deep-water ports.
Farmers feel effects already from the Arctic warming, he says. When a white surface turns black, it absorbs heat and warms up. An open-water Arctic Ocean is changing weather patterns around the planet.
Right now, Churchill remains at the end of an isolated, rugged route. Paved roads end at Thompson, 240 miles south of Churchill. Travelers can take a stabilized, two-lane gravel road north to within about 60 miles of the port, but that’s where all roads now stop.
The single rail link is owned by OmniTRAX, North America’s largest private railroad. The last leg of rail is on tundra and muskeg, where rail speed is about 15 mph. It takes 16 hours to make the 240 miles.
However, with climate change and pressure for commercial development of northern natural gas, oil, minerals, and rare earth elements, Barber still says the HBRA has reason to hope for big improvements in transport options in the decades ahead.