Developing a new brand is risky. Hence much data about the market, the new brand concept, the product, and its pre-test market and test market performances are usually pored over. But marketing people cannot easily relate such data to how the new brand will actually perform.
In as far as the brand is new, its ultimate sales performance will naturally be difficult to predict. But for packaged grocery products or 'fmcgs', it is known that the established brands all attract much the same patterns of buyer behaviour (e.g. Ehrenberg 1972; 1988). As a result, any sales target for the new brand can be translated into predictions about its penetration, repeat–buying rates, and competitive performance for when the new brand has 'settled down' and itself become an established brand. Such fleshing out of a brand’s sales target in consumer terms – which is the topic of this paper – provides yardsticks for judging the new brand concept, its proposed marketing support, and its pre–launch and early launch performance