The overall conclusion of the analysis undertaken here is that,
in the absence to date of major shifts in group identities and
affiliations, and major low-carbon investments, the Climate
Change Act remains at risk of reversal. As Patashnik (2008: 32)
notes, this could come either in the form of a coalition ‘‘exerting
strong pressure to restore the status quo ante’’, or perhaps less
likely, politicians themselves leading a reversal. Although repeal
seems unlikely in the near future (despite calls for this by some),
the risk that the Act may be significantly undermined over the
next few years remains very real. One of the protagonists
originally involved in the birth of the Act characterises it as ‘‘on
a knife edge’’.
This analysis of difficulties faced in securing the Act politically
should not be read as a statement of its ineffectiveness to date. It
was a major innovation, and in a sense, the fierce debate in 2011
about adopting a stringent fourth carbon budget shows the worth
of the Act; it is quite likely that without a law with long term
targets and an institution like the Committee on Climate Change
standing behind it, a carbon budget for the 2020s would never have
been agreed to by the Government. The key question is whether
the Act can continue to play that role, given that its political future
is still uncertain.
The overall conclusion of the analysis undertaken here is that,
in the absence to date of major shifts in group identities and
affiliations, and major low-carbon investments, the Climate
Change Act remains at risk of reversal. As Patashnik (2008: 32)
notes, this could come either in the form of a coalition ‘‘exerting
strong pressure to restore the status quo ante’’, or perhaps less
likely, politicians themselves leading a reversal. Although repeal
seems unlikely in the near future (despite calls for this by some),
the risk that the Act may be significantly undermined over the
next few years remains very real. One of the protagonists
originally involved in the birth of the Act characterises it as ‘‘on
a knife edge’’.
This analysis of difficulties faced in securing the Act politically
should not be read as a statement of its ineffectiveness to date. It
was a major innovation, and in a sense, the fierce debate in 2011
about adopting a stringent fourth carbon budget shows the worth
of the Act; it is quite likely that without a law with long term
targets and an institution like the Committee on Climate Change
standing behind it, a carbon budget for the 2020s would never have
been agreed to by the Government. The key question is whether
the Act can continue to play that role, given that its political future
is still uncertain.
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