The first studies of promotion decision making appeared in the 1970s and
were vignette studies in which managers were asked to make simulated promotion
decisions for hypothetical candidates (Taylor, 1975). These studies examined the
criteria used by managers when making a promotion decision, and they found that
managers used a relatively small number of cues, such as previous experience,
communication skills, and leadership ability. These findings were consistent with
results from the broader judgment and decision-making literature at the time,
which suggests that human decision makers rely on relatively limited information
(Bouman, 1980; Shanteau, 1995).