Russian policy on its western borders will be defensive, not offensive. Contrary to the fears and phobias of Eastern Europe, there will be no military steps against the new NATO members. Air, sea and cyber incidents will happen again. But the threat here is escalation resulting from an accidental collision, not a pre-planned operation. Defense spending in line with “Russian aggression” will no doubt please NATO’s top leaders, but the chances of solving any real problems as a result will be close to zero.