Over the last several centuries the modern State has made remarkable progress collecting information and developing an understanding of its people and natural resources. Censuses have evolved to describe populations, and surnames have been assigned to uniquely identify specific individuals. Cadastral systems have registered property and defined land boundaries. Some forests were removed from the control of local common property regimes in attempts to introduce scientific management. City plans and transportation arteries were regularized to facilitate trade, state control, and extraction of tax revenues (Scott, 1998).
Because water is a renewable resource that moves so quickly and easily through the hydrological cycle and across national boundaries, it has proved the most difficult natural resource for States to understand and control. As a result, it is difficult to estimate the changes in the system value of water associated with investments in new water resources infrastructure and other policy interventions. In part, due to the inherent variability of hydrological systems, hydrological data were more difficult to collect and analyze than information about most other natural resources. In some developing countries hydrological data are still treated as State secrets and so States often end up leaving themselves in the dark about basic hydrological facts and development opportunities. Hydrological data categorized as national security information might be compartmentalized, and thus States must make decisions without the full range of available information. In such situations it can be difficult to distinguish myths from realities about how a river basin actually behaves, and the risks and opportunities associated with alternative infrastructure investments (Sadoff et al 2013). For example, the Ganges is the world’s most populous river basin with over half a billion inhabitants, yet even in the 21st century remarkably little is known about the way in which the river functions and how its waters are used.
States are often unclear about their water resources development options and the tradeoffs associated with different steps along a water development path. This lack of clarity makes water disputes between countries especially difficult to resolve because the objectivity of technical communities is suspect, and States cannot easily agree on the scientific facts. Because States struggle to understand the reality of water resources situations, it is hard to predict the decisions they will make when faced with complex strategic choices.