Besides the two main channels of transmission described above, the MAS'
monetary or exchange rate policy also impacts the economy through its
influence on domestic demand, for example, via the interest rate, as can
be seen in the following box.
Changes in the monetary or exchange rate policy can also influence
consumer confidence, expectations about the future course of the
economy, and asset prices, although their ultimate impact on domestic
demand and its timing are even more difficult to assess.
How does a change in exchange rate impact interest rates?
The interest rate is the price at which money today may be traded off for
money at a future date. In other words, it is the rate of return to savings
and the cost of borrowing. The precise impact on domestic interest rates of
a change in the trade-weighted S$ exchange rate is uncertain, as it depends
on people's expectations about inflation, foreign interest rates as well as the
exchange rate.
The central bank can affect interest rates through its influence on market
expectations of the future movement of the exchange rate. For instance,
during the first half of the 1990s, MAS had a policy of appreciating the trade-weighted
exchange rate so as to dampen inflation. As a result, the market
expected the S$ exchange rate to appreciate over time, and this led to lower
domestic interest rates.
And how do interest rates affect the economy?
Interest rates impact the economy via their effect on domestic spending on
investment and consumption. For example, a rise in interest rates increases
companies' borrowing costs, thereby reducing profits and increasing the
return that they will require from new investment projects. As a result, this
will make companies less likely to undertake new investments. However, the
importance of this effect on companies depends on the nature of their
business, their size and sources of finance.
In Singapore, it is reckoned that companies in the manufacturing sector may
be relatively less affected by interest rate increases, as the sector is
dominated by multinational corporations (MNCs) which rely on their own
sources of funds, e.g. from head offices. In contrast, companies in the
building and construction sector may be more severely affected as they are
more reliant on bank borrowing and their cashflows are much tighter given
the long duration of their projects.
Higher interest rates also affect the individuals and households, as they face
new rates on their savings and debts, in particular mortgages. Any rise in
mortgage interest rate will increase the monthly mortgage payments of
households. This will reduce the disposable income of households and,
hence, the amount available to them to spend on goods and services.
Moreover, higher interest rates provide a greater incentive for the individuals
and households to save for the future rather than to consume now. The end
result is a decline in domestic demand and lower inflationary pressures.