All of these events occurred within a few months of each other in the first half of 1993. Each marked the transfer of political power from one leader to another. Some of these transfers occurred in orderly and democratic fashions in accordance with long-established rules. Others, notably those in the third world, were unpredictable and fraught with tension and the risk of violence. The ability of a political system to make a transition in leadership in an orderly and predictable manner is a key indicator of its stability and durability.