Research has shown that there are systematic differences between countries choosing to peg their exchange rates and those choosing floating rates. One very important characteristic is country size in terms of economic activity or GDP. Large countries tend to be more independent and less willing to subjugate domestic policies with a view toward maintaining a fixed rate of exchange with foreign currencies. Since foreign trade tends to constitute a smaller fraction of GDP the larger the country is, it is perhaps understandable that larger countries are less attuned to foreign exchange rate concerns than are smaller countries.
The openness of the economy is another important factor. By openness, we mean the degree to which the country depends on international trade. The greater the fraction of tradable (i.e., internationally tradable) goods in GDP, the more open the economy will be. A country with little or no international trade is referred to as a closed economy. As previously mentioned, openness is related to size. The more open the economy, the greater the weight of tradable goods prices in the overall national price level, and therefore the greater the impact of exchange rate changes on the national price level. To minimize such foreign-related shocks to the domestic price level, the more open economy tends to follow a pegged exchange rate.
Countries that choose higher rates of inflation than their trading partners will have difficulty maintaining an exchange rate peg. We find, in fact, that countries whose inflation experiences are different from the average follow floating rates, or a crawling-peg-type system in which the 46 International Money and Finance exchange rate is adjusted at short intervals to compensate for the inflation differentials.
Countries that trade largely with a single foreign country tend to peg their exchange rate to that country’s currency. For instance, since the United States accounts for the majority of Barbados trade, by pegging to the U.S. dollar, Barbados imparts to its exports and imports a degree of stability that would otherwise be missing. By maintaining a pegged rate between the Barbados dollar and the U.S. dollar, Barbados is not unlike another state of the United States as far as pricing goods and services in United StatesBarbados trade. Countries with diversified trading patterns will not find exchange rate pegging so desirable.
The evidence from previous studies indicates quite convincingly the systematic differences between peggers and floaters, which is summarized in Table 2.4. But there are exceptions to these generalities because neither all peggers nor all floaters have the same characteristics. We can safely say that, in general, the larger the country is, the more likely it is to float its exchange rate; the more closed the economy is, the more likely the country will float; and so on. The point is that economic phenomena, and not just political maneuvering, ultimately influence foreign exchange rate practices.
There is also concern about how the choice of an exchange rate system affects the stability of the economy. If the domestic policy authorities seek to minimize unexpected fluctuations in the domestic price level, then they will choose an exchange rate system that best minimizes such fluctuations. For instance, the greater the foreign tradable goods price fluctuations are, the more likely there will be a float, since the floating exchange rate helps to insulate the domestic economy from foreign price disturbances. The greater the domestic money supply fluctuations are, the more likely there will be a peg, since international money flows serve as shock absorbers that reduce the domestic price impact of domestic money supply fluctuations. With a fixed exchange rate, an excess supply of domestic money will cause a capital outflow because some of this excess supply is eliminated via a balance of payments deficit. With floating rates, thcurrency. Once again, the empirical evidence supports the notion that real-world exchange rate practices are determined by such economic phenomena.