Such population predictions are fundamental for population-viability analysis and are essential for assessing the implications of various management actions.
Development of reliable population predictions is however, difficult because it requires estimation and modelling of the separate effects of the deterministic components of the population dynamics as well as the stochastic influences on the population fluctuations.
Here we model the stochastic dynamics of an introduced population of muskox Ovibos moschatus in the Dovrefjell mountains of central Norway, using a simple model without density regulation. Our aim is to examine quantitatively factors affecting the accuracy of the population projections by applying the concept of Population Prediction Interval (PPI)