Implications for attracting foreign investment
Firms and investors in many non-European Union countries have been using Britain as a gateway to Europe, benefitting from the zero-tariff environment and free movement of labour and capital. Accordingly, the main fear here seems to be that, if the United Kingdom voted to leave, foreign direct investment inflows would dry up and parent companies may even close-up shop and move production or offices elsewhere. In addition, given that foreign multinationals tend to be productivity-enhancing, bringing with them new technologies and management practices, a drying up of this investment into Britain could be damaging for the country’s long-term potential.
These fears tend to focus on investment in manufacturing industries (such as car production) but foreign investment includes not only financing for physical plants and machinery but also less tangible financial investments. In fact, it is once again the financial sector that appears to have the most to lose from Brexit, at least in the short term: around a third of inward foreign direct investment by non-European Union countries in the United Kingdom is accounted for by financial services.28
Nevertheless, we think that these concerns are overblown. They are predicated on the assumption that, on leaving the European Union, Britain would be hit with a swathe of harsh tariffs which would make it costly to export to member countries. But, as we have already determined, tariffs on exports to the European Union remain generally low for non-member countries. Moreover, these fears don’t take into account the fact that firms choose to invest in Britain for a myriad of reasons, not just for its access to the single market, and that they do not just invest in projects for the production of physical goods.
In the World Bank’s Doing Business survey (which assesses countries according to the ease of doing business in them), Britain ranks highly in areas such as attaining credit, dealing with construction permits and protecting minority investors.29 What’s more, the United Kingdom benefits from good transport connections, a welcoming political environment, a strong rule of law and the English language. This helps to explain why Britain has been more successful than other European Union countries in attracting inward foreign direct investment, capturing 28% of all investment into (European Union and non-European Union) Europe in 2014.30