On Friday, Deutsche Bank's David Bianco pointed out that if you consider GAAP earnings — that's the earnings figure that doesn't exclude adjustments that companies make to smooth out the numbers — earnings are actually declining.
"The S&P avoided down EPS in 1H15, up ~2% y/y on non-GAAP EPS, but the GAAP EPS declined by 13% y/y," Bianco added. "We have always argued that the best EPS measure lies somewhere between GAAP and non-GAAP EPS."
This may come as a surprise to everyone as they watch jobs grow, unemployment come down, auto sales surge, home prices rally, and stock prices sit near record levels. But when everything's great, it's reasonable to be concerned that we're near the top. Indeed, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin was "surprised" to hear clients asking about the prospect for a US recession in 2016.