By keeping constant the flatter 2007 age-related expenditure profiles as the basis of the health care projections,
the projected budgetary impact of ageing will be less evident in the EU12
countries compared to EU15. Cost convergence scenario assumes therefore that the
average age-related expenditure of EU12 countries in the base year 2007 progressively
increases to the average age-related expenditure profile of EU15 countries by 2060. Such
simplified assumption implies that the underlying growth in per capita spending would
have to accelerate considerably in the Recently Acceded Member States. Still, since the
current gap in per capita spending is significant mainly for the older age cohorts (see
Graph 7), the rate of increase would vary considerably across the age groups and the
extra spending would concentrate just in the older cohorts. Indeed, if the convergence of
EU15 and EU12 age profiles was to be achieved by 2060, per capita spending would