After the roaring nineties, which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991
and ended with the rouble crisis in 1998, the start of this century was characterised by
a much more stable and prosperous development. The year 1999 was one of
adjustment, and since president Putin took power in 2000 the Russian economy has
shown an outstanding performance. The period of uninterrupted decline over the first
eight years of the transition period were followed by a period of prolonged strong
growth following the rouble crisis. And in fact, the end of this sustained growth is not yet
in sight. The year 2006 was a milestone as it was the first year in which Russia was
able to make up for the large decline in the real value of GDP during the years of
transition prior to the rouble crisis. 1
With a population of over 140 million people, a nominal GDP of almost one trillion USD
and rising wealth levels, Russia is not only attractive because of its rich natural
resource base and related industrial investments and services, but has also become an
interesting consumer market with a rising middle class.
Although the positive economic developments since 1999 are mostly attributable to
high energy prices and the much improved competitive position due to the sharp fall in
the rouble at the end of 1998, sound macroeconomic management also played an
important role. Fiscal surpluses became the rule and debt levels were reduced to the
point that the government became a net creditor. The currency started to strengthen
and inflation was brought under control. The much improved macroeconomic stability
also enhanced the inflow of foreign investment, which rose considerably over recent
years. There is, however, a flipside to these strong growth levels and the inflow of
foreign capital. The central bank is having a hard time balancing the need to keep
inflation in check and the risk of a strong loss in competitiveness due to the resulting
strong currency. A loosening of fiscal policy in the run-up to the parliamentary elections
at the end of 2007 and the presidential elections in March 2008 makes this balancing
act even more difficult.