The model validation followed two stages: NPTs validation and model validation. Before validating the entire mo-
del, we incrementally tested the outputs of all the NPTs to
validate the weighted expressions we calculated. To validate
the NPTs, we compared the actual results with the expected results and judged if the actual results were acceptable.
Afterwards, we input data from ten different scenarios and
judged if the model represents the scenarios properly.
Due to space constraints, this paper limits itself to state
that the NPTs and model validation were successful and present one of the scenarios used to test the model. This scenario represents a Scrum-based software development project
that has a highly capable and organized development team
but does not have a person committed and skilled to play
the role of the Product Owner. Furthermore, the stakeholders do not collaborate closely with the team. The expected
result for this project is to have a small chance of reaching its
goals, and the major reasons for the failure are the Product
Owner low work quality and lack of proper work validation.
After defining this scenario, we defined the values for the
input nodes in the model and ran it on AgenaRisk. Table 1
gives the values for the nodes Project progress and its parent
nodes, which are the most important nodes for the initial
analysis. By analyzing the results on Table 1, we can check
that the model results are acceptable, because it raises a flag
that the project progress is not going well and the biggest
reasons for it are the bad work validation process and bad
quality of work performed by the Product Owner. Further-more, by analyzing the values of the nodes Work validation,
Product Owner work quality and their parents, the Scrum-Master can observe which problems are the major sources
for having the current values on the node Project progress
and use this information to lead the project to improve the
chances of succeeding.