Young companies are difficult to value for a number of reasons. Some are start-up and
idea businesses, with little or no revenues and operating losses. Even those young
companies that are profitable have short histories and most young firms are dependent
upon private capital, initially owner savings and venture capital and private equity later
on. As a result, many of the standard techniques we use to estimate cash flows, growth
rates and discount rates either do not work or yield unrealistic numbers. In addition, the
fact that most young companies do not survive has to be considered somewhere in the
valuation. In this paper, we examine how best to value young companies. We use a
combination of data on more mature companies in the business and the company’s own
characteristics to forecast revenues, earnings and cash flows. We also establish processes
for estimating discount rates for private capital and for adjusting the value today for the
possibility of failure. In the process, we argue that the venture capital approach to
valuation that is widely used now is flawed and should be replaced.
Young companies are difficult to value for a number of reasons. Some are start-up andidea businesses, with little or no revenues and operating losses. Even those youngcompanies that are profitable have short histories and most young firms are dependentupon private capital, initially owner savings and venture capital and private equity lateron. As a result, many of the standard techniques we use to estimate cash flows, growthrates and discount rates either do not work or yield unrealistic numbers. In addition, thefact that most young companies do not survive has to be considered somewhere in thevaluation. In this paper, we examine how best to value young companies. We use acombination of data on more mature companies in the business and the company’s owncharacteristics to forecast revenues, earnings and cash flows. We also establish processesfor estimating discount rates for private capital and for adjusting the value today for thepossibility of failure. In the process, we argue that the venture capital approach tovaluation that is widely used now is flawed and should be replaced.
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