tourism are likely to face important economic flow-on effects of
climate change-induced tourism impacts.
Studies of the current and/or future spatial and temporal distribution of climate resources for summertime tourism in Australia
are extremely rare. Only one peer reviewed article of this kind was
identified, Hadwen et al.’s (2011) analysis of whether climatic
(minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation) or
institutional factors (the timing of school holidays) drive Australian
seasonality. In five out of six climate zones, the explanatory power
of the climate variables was found to be much higher than that of
the institutional factor, suggesting that climate change is likely to
have major impacts on the spatial distribution, timing and viability
of nature-based tourism in Australia. No other projections of future
climate conditions with respect to tourism in Australia appear to
exist. The Australian Government’s “Climate Change Guide” for
Australian tour operators devotes a single sentence to the
description of future conditions: “The attractiveness of certain
tourism destinations may change depending on the extent and
nature of climate change in that area” (Australian Government
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, 2009, p. 4).
In light of this deficiency, the purpose of the study presented
here is to assess the impacts of projected climate change for Australia’s tourism industry. More specifically, using the Tourism Climatic Index introduced below, the study investigates potential
changes in climatic attractiveness for Australia’s major tourism
destinations over the coming century, and discusses the likely
implications of these changes for flows of tourists as well as for
tourism planning, development and management.