The sentiment index does a good job of predicting the past. It only has difficulty predicting the future. Indeed, bullishness appears to have a backward-looking horizon of about twelve months. The two most recent months exert the strongest impact on bullish sentiment, with the market movements in the other ten months exerthing a moderate influene. Not surprisingly, market moves from three months ago affect the degree of bullish sentiment today more than market moves of the same magnitude twelve months ago.