The central bank faces a trickier task. It unexpectedly cut its benchmark lending rate to 0.75% in January, when the economy was already looking sickly. There is speculation that the bank will lower it yet again at the next opportunity, on July 15th. But that could push up house prices still further and encourage consumers to borrow even more.
So the government’s main tactic for dealing with the slowdown seems to be hope. One possibility is that the slump in exports to the United States, by far the biggest foreign market, will prove to be temporary. Mr Cross argues that the recent drop was largely due to cold weather in the eastern United States and a dock strike in the west. If so, exports should pick up, lifting production and investment. Mr Harper must pray that happens soon. If it does not, he risks being unhorsed by angry voters.