During that same time period the industry replaced about 16 percent of its volume each year with new models. That means it would typically take 6.3 years for a company to completely revamp its entire lineup. In the next four years the replacement rate is expected to hit 23 percent. It’s also predicted to skew toward trucks, with pickups and crossovers netting about 53 percent of new-vehicle volume.
Wrapping things up, Ford and Honda could gain between now and 2017 because of their favorable product replacement rates. The Korean brands, Fiat/Chrysler, GM and Toyota are likely to remain flat while European OEMs and Nissan are estimated to lose market share. Fortunately the swings involved are projected to be small because the industry has adjusted its manufacturing capacity to meet demand and everyone has solid products. This is good for consumers and automakers; buyers have lots to choose from and manufacturers are no longer locked in a “race to the bottom,” cutting prices to sell vehicles.