In the rst step, Jane's two preferred activities,
`Learning new things' and `Enjoying nature' are assumed
equally important. Each is then given a probability of
0.5, and the remaining two of the four preferred activities
(Table 1) are given a probability of zero: `Learning new
things' (0.5), `Enjoying nature' (0.5), `Relaxing' (0.0), and
`Venturing' (0.0). The probabilities of the four activities are
used in the subsequent Bayesian process to estimate Jane's
choice of provided activities. For illustration purposes, of the
52 provided activities in the six-level hierarchy (Figure 2),
only the activities at the top two levels are discussed here.