Fig. 5, the effects of combined implementation of fuel switching and energy efficiency option are shown.
Reduction of GHG emissions in the transport sector of around 623 kt of CO2-eq in 2008 increasing up to about 6933 kt of CO2-eq in 2030 are predicted.
While the fuel switching option can reduce the GHG emissions better than the energy efficiency option in the beginning, over the long run, the reduction will gradually become less because the total fuel demand increase of this sector has always outstripped that of biofuels supply growth and will continue to be so in the future.
The promotion of biodiesel and bioethanol are expected to lessen by 3.0% the GHG emissions of the BAU scenario in 2012 and will decline dramatically after 2022 because of future biofuels supply limitation in the face of continuing increase in the demand for conventional fossil fuel in road transport.
By 2030, the annual GHG emissions reduction by the fuel switching mitigation option will decline to about 3751 kt of CO2-eq, accounting for 1.8% reduction from the BAU scenario. In contrast, the GHG emissions mitigation potential of the energy efficiency option, although miniscule in the beginning as compared to the fuel switching option, will gradually increase because of the expected increasing penetration of high energy efficiency vehicles into the new car market in future years.
By 2030, the combined annual GHG emissions reduction by both hybrid and ecocars are expected to be up to around 3182 kt of CO2-eq, accounting for about 1.5% of total GHG emissions reduction from the BAU scenario.