addresses the case where all aquaculture is able to grow faster than under the baseline scenario by 50 percent between
2011 and 2030. In particular, the scenario assumes faster technological progress such that aquaculture would be able to supply a
given amount at a lower cost (supply curves would shift outward), but it assumes the same feed requirements per unit weight of
aquaculture production. Technical progress may include genetic improvement, innovations in distribution, improvements in disease
and other management practices, control of biological process (life cycle) for additional species, and improvements in the condition of
existing production sites and expansion of new production sites. While these technical changes are implicit in the baseline parameters,
this scenario accelerates the changes by 50 percent. At the global level, the model predicts that aquaculture production in 2030 would
expand from 93.2 million tons under the baseline case to 101.2 million tons under this scenario. The model predicts that the faster
growth in all aquaculture would stress the fi shmeal market and this eff ect would dictate which species and which regions would grow
faster than the others. Under this scenario, tilapia production in 2030 would be 30 percent higher than in the baseline case; production
of mollusks, salmon, and shrimp in 2030 would be higher by more than 10 percent. As a result, relative to the baseline scenario, all fi sh
prices in 2030 in real terms would be lower by up to 2 percent, except for the price of the other pelagic category, which is used as an
ingredient of fi shmeal and fi sh oil. Fishmeal price in 2030 would be 13 percent higher than in the baseline case, while fi sh oil price would
be higher by 7 percent.
addresses the case where all aquaculture is able to grow faster than under the baseline scenario by 50 percent between
2011 and 2030. In particular, the scenario assumes faster technological progress such that aquaculture would be able to supply a
given amount at a lower cost (supply curves would shift outward), but it assumes the same feed requirements per unit weight of
aquaculture production. Technical progress may include genetic improvement, innovations in distribution, improvements in disease
and other management practices, control of biological process (life cycle) for additional species, and improvements in the condition of
existing production sites and expansion of new production sites. While these technical changes are implicit in the baseline parameters,
this scenario accelerates the changes by 50 percent. At the global level, the model predicts that aquaculture production in 2030 would
expand from 93.2 million tons under the baseline case to 101.2 million tons under this scenario. The model predicts that the faster
growth in all aquaculture would stress the fi shmeal market and this eff ect would dictate which species and which regions would grow
faster than the others. Under this scenario, tilapia production in 2030 would be 30 percent higher than in the baseline case; production
of mollusks, salmon, and shrimp in 2030 would be higher by more than 10 percent. As a result, relative to the baseline scenario, all fi sh
prices in 2030 in real terms would be lower by up to 2 percent, except for the price of the other pelagic category, which is used as an
ingredient of fi shmeal and fi sh oil. Fishmeal price in 2030 would be 13 percent higher than in the baseline case, while fi sh oil price would
be higher by 7 percent.
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