This paper explores the implications of delays (to 2030) in implementing optimal policies for
long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450 ppm CO2e on the basis of the
AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study.
The paper highlights the critical importance of the period 2030–2050 for ambitious mitigation
strategies. In this period, the most rapid shift to low greenhouse gas emitting technology
occurs. In the delayed response emission mitigation scenarios, an even faster transition rate in
this period is required to compensate for the additional emissions before 2030. Our physical
deployment measures indicate that the availability of CCS technology could play a critical role
in facilitating the attainment of ambitious mitigation goals. Without CCS, deployment of other
mitigation technologies would become extremely high in the 2030–2050 period. Yet the
presence of CCS greatly alleviates the challenges to the transition particularly after the delayed
climate policies, lowering the risk that the long-term goal becomes unattainable.
The results also highlight the important role of bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage
(BECCS), which facilitates energy production with negative carbon emissions. If BECCS is
available, transition pathways exceed the emission budget in the mid-term, removing the
excess with BECCS in the long term. Excluding either BE or CCS from the technology portfolio
implies that emission reductions need to take place much earlier.
This paper explores the implications of delays (to 2030) in implementing optimal policies for
long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450 ppm CO2e on the basis of the
AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study.
The paper highlights the critical importance of the period 2030–2050 for ambitious mitigation
strategies. In this period, the most rapid shift to low greenhouse gas emitting technology
occurs. In the delayed response emission mitigation scenarios, an even faster transition rate in
this period is required to compensate for the additional emissions before 2030. Our physical
deployment measures indicate that the availability of CCS technology could play a critical role
in facilitating the attainment of ambitious mitigation goals. Without CCS, deployment of other
mitigation technologies would become extremely high in the 2030–2050 period. Yet the
presence of CCS greatly alleviates the challenges to the transition particularly after the delayed
climate policies, lowering the risk that the long-term goal becomes unattainable.
The results also highlight the important role of bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage
(BECCS), which facilitates energy production with negative carbon emissions. If BECCS is
available, transition pathways exceed the emission budget in the mid-term, removing the
excess with BECCS in the long term. Excluding either BE or CCS from the technology portfolio
implies that emission reductions need to take place much earlier.
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