Psychological self-control models, such as proposed by Rachlin
(1989), predict a reduction in risky behaviour (or an increase in
protective behaviour) when the negative consequences of doing
so (or not doing so), such as losing points or paying a large fine,
are increased. Self-control models also highlight the importance
of the relationship between the behaviour and its consequence,
hypothesising that the immediate consequences are more important
in predicting behaviour than any delayed consequences. One
of the main contributions of Rachlin’s self-control model was to
introduce the concepts of probability and delay as equivalents,
thus linking expected utility models, which state that behaviour
depends upon the probability of losses and gains (Kahneman and
Tversky, 1979), with the psychological learning behaviour models.
Rachlin’s model states that it is more effective to increase the probability
of punishment, or to reduce the delay in delivery, than to
increase the severity of the penalties. A loss of points can be considered
to be an immediate consequence if the driver caught by
the police is punished with a loss of points. Although the official
notification of the lost points usually arrives later, the drivers are
immediately aware of the negative consequences of their behaviour.
If an infringement is detected by an automatic camera the
driver will receive a penalty notice two or three weeks later. However,
although the driver will be able to associate the risky behaviour
with the penalty, the impact on their behaviour is likely to be
weaker than if the punishment had been delivered immediately.