Figure 2 shows the contribution of automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal changes to the total change in the fiscal surplus (figures for 2002 are based on the April CBO projections). A positive value means that the surplus has increased (the deficit has shrunk) and therefore represents a contractionary shift in the budget; a negative value represents a more expansionary policy. During the recessions in 1970, 1974-1975, and 1990-1991, almost the entire shift to a larger deficit was the result of automatic stabilizers at work. In contrast, in the current recession both automatic and discretionary fiscal policy changes have worked to reduce the surplus. Notice, however, that the automatic stabilizers began to work in 1999, while the major shift in discretionary fiscal policy did not occur until later, when the economy had already entered a recession.