5 Final remarks
In these notes I have argued that many of the main macroeconomic events of
the last two decades, both for developing and developed economies, can be understood by recognizing a powerful, yet largely ignored ingredient in the
analysis of these events: the world seems to have a severe shortage of assets.
This ingredient has positive and normative implications. Among the former,
emerging market boom-bust cycles, global imbalances, low real interest
rates, deflationary episodes, recurrent bubbles, and financial panics, all follow
naturally from this view.
As for policy, perhaps the main advice is the importance of recognizing
the source of these symptoms and the fact that some of them are simply
the market’s attempt to fill the asset gap. In this context, knee-jerk reactions
to the emergence of speculative bubbles and global imbalances can be
counterproductive.