To explore the relationship between sleep duration and diabetes incidence over an 8- to 10-year follow-up period in data from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I). We hypothesized that prolonged short sleep duration is associated with diabetes and that obesity and hypertension act as partial mediators of this relationship. The increased load on the pancreas from insulin resistance induced by chronically short sleep durations can, over time, compromise β-cell function and lead to type 2 diabetes. No plausible mechanism has been identified by which long sleep duration could lead to diabetes.