4.1.1.6.1. Assumptions and variable definitions.I present a simple model of
the relation between earnings growth rates and stock returns, which captures
the prices-lead-earnings phenomenon.I use growth rates because it simplifies
the analysis.How ever, the intuition from the analysis is equally applicable to
return–earnings analysis that uses earnings or earnings change deflated by price
as the earnings variable in the regressions.The particulars of the econometrics
naturally change with different specifications of the variables, but the
qualitative results continue to hold
Stock prices respond only to information about earnings growth, i.e.,
discount rates are assumed constant inter-temporally and cross-sectionally.
Given the assumptions about earnings growth rates, return in period