Economist Saowaruj Rattanakhamfu is

Economist Saowaruj Rattanakhamfu isn’t employed by the government or a corporate interest, so as an independent she’s one of relatively few people able to make a dispassionate argument about what the Asean Economic Community (AEC) initiative slated for 2015 will mean for the kingdom. She works as a research fellow for Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), one of only a handful of think-tanks in the country, and unlike much of what is published in the media, Dr Saowaruj believes not much will change by 2015.

Rather than dire warnings of how companies have to prepare for increased competition and liberalisation, her research and knowledge of the AEC regulations has led her to believe that much of this warning is overblown hype.

“I want Thailand to open up several of its sectors. I want it to improve on worker productivity and education and technology. But right now, in preparation for the AEC, not much is being done and that won’t change anytime soon,” said Dr Saowaruj.

To understand why, first you have to understand the regulations.

“The biggest myth about the AEC is that there will be free flow of labour,” she said. “But to this point it is only highly skilled labour that can move, and it isn’t that freely. Warnings of a flood of unskilled labour to Singapore are unfounded.”

Article 140 of the Thai Constitution requires that any international agreement is passed by Parliament. So far only the slightest of concessions has been made, Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) for seven professions: engineering, nursing, physician, dental, architecture, surveying and accounting. The agreements between the 10 Asean member countries mean licensed and recognised professionals in these fields can move to other Asean countries to practice, but they are still subject to pass that country’s licensing test.

In addition, you can’t be an independent practitioner. Any foreign professional intending to work in Thailand must collaborate with a local business, yet another reason why the AEC is unlikely to foster a “free flow” of labour.

“I know of only one Asean non-Thai nurse who has passed the local certification test, and she was part-American but lived in Thailand for a decade,” said Dr Saowaruj. “Keep in mind that the local exams are all in Thai language. And MRAs are still subject to all domestic laws and regulations, such as alien employment rules requiring work permits and the 39 protected professions in which foreigners are not allowed to work. Even the visas we allow for business visitors are different than what Thailand agreed to in GATT.

“So in practice you can see MRAs don’t work very well. I don’t see this changing by 2015. The framework for MRAs was set in 2003 but we only have them for seven professions at this point. Even we have a shortage in some professions such as nursing, but I don’t think this is likely to change anytime soon.”