The results of the empirical test above suggest that the crisis in Russia is difficult to beexplained by only one set of the variables representing respectively government financeproblems, overvaluation in the real exchange rate under the fixed nominal values, abruptchange in investors’ expectations, external capital flows or banking related variables. All thesevariables matter, the question is just of the extent to which the particular group of thevariables contributed to the crisis in Russia.Decomposing the overall simulated crisis probabilities to the relative shares due to theexplanatory variables of different categories implies the highest contribution to the increasedcrisis probability is to be attributed to the indicators of the financial sector weakness.