Environmental sustainability was established by the United Nations as a Millennium Development Goal
(MDG7), including a wide variety of targets referred to the access to safe drinking water, the reduction
of biodiversity loss, the improvement of lives of slum dwellers and the integration of principles of
sustainable development into the country policies.
Despite some progress towards meeting this goal, new challenges have appeared, endangering the
development and environmental achievements. Therefore, United Nations and the international
community are working on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) as a new framework placing
environmental sustainability at its core.
In this context,the analysis of environmental forecasts plays a main role. More specifically,taking into
account that the carbon dioxide emissions have increased by almost 50 per cent since year 1990, special
attention must be paid to the evolution and projections of emissions for different countries.
In this paper we focus on environmental forecasting, based on the extended Environmental Kuznets
Curve (EKC) and the Environmental Logistic Curve (ELC). Considering a sample of 175 countries we
perform a competition between both methods, analysing their goodness of fit and their forecasting
accuracy. The empirical results provide significant evidence about the adequacy of EKC and ELC for
explaining CO2 emissions in different countries, also allowing us to obtain some ex-ante projections
Environmental sustainability was established by the United Nations as a Millennium Development Goal(MDG7), including a wide variety of targets referred to the access to safe drinking water, the reductionof biodiversity loss, the improvement of lives of slum dwellers and the integration of principles ofsustainable development into the country policies.Despite some progress towards meeting this goal, new challenges have appeared, endangering thedevelopment and environmental achievements. Therefore, United Nations and the internationalcommunity are working on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) as a new framework placingenvironmental sustainability at its core.In this context,the analysis of environmental forecasts plays a main role. More specifically,taking intoaccount that the carbon dioxide emissions have increased by almost 50 per cent since year 1990, specialattention must be paid to the evolution and projections of emissions for different countries.In this paper we focus on environmental forecasting, based on the extended Environmental KuznetsCurve (EKC) and the Environmental Logistic Curve (ELC). Considering a sample of 175 countries weperform a competition between both methods, analysing their goodness of fit and their forecastingaccuracy. The empirical results provide significant evidence about the adequacy of EKC and ELC forexplaining CO2 emissions in different countries, also allowing us to obtain some ex-ante projections
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