Opportunity cost makes the payoff uncertain. Central Provident savings can be invested at interest whereas an ElderShield payment is a been-and-gone deducted from the account. Assuming that the member joins at 40 and does not experience sufficient disability until he is 70, he would lose compound interest (4% per annum, tax-free) on the annual premiums paid. Obviously, if he had some way of putting Medisave into shares or gold, the implicit loss would be greater still. The Eldershield premium is S$148.84 for a man joining at age 40, S$190.63 for a woman. This means that a male joining at 40 would be paying in a total of S$4465.20 in or der to take out a maximum of S$18,000 when he is 70. Interest is lost on the S$4465.20 and the share portfolio could appreciate