Our findings are different for the ERM and non-ERM subsamples. For the non-ERM
subsample we find significant differences in the behavior of budget deficits, inflation rates,
rates of credit growth, and trade balances when comparing periods preceding speculative
attacks and control-group observations. These differences are consistent with the predictions
of early contributions to the speculative attack literature -- what we call "first-generation"
models — like those of Krugman (1979) and Flood and C3arber (1984a).' For the ERM
subsample, in contrast, there is a striking lack of differences. The behavior of reserves and
possibly also interest rates differs between periods of crisis and tranquility; this is not
surprising, however, since these are two of the variables on whose basis we categorize
episodes as speculative crises. But the only other variables whose behavior differs
significantly between crises and non-crises in the ERM subsample are money growth and