Conclusion
Our results in a low risk Western patient population show that all stages of Correa’s cascade predict an incidence of gastric cancer above that of the general population. The observed incidence approximately translates into a 20 year risk of 1 in 85 with gastritis, 1 in 50 with atrophic gastritis, 1 in 39 with intestinal metaplasia, and 1 in 19 with dysplasia among patients who undergo gastroscopy with biopsy for clinical indications. The quantified absolute risks, along with future studies on other risk stratification factors and cost-benefit analyses, should guide the development of surveillance policies.