In order to evaluate the impact on air quality of the NEC
scenarios, numerical simulations were performed with the WRF–
EURAD modeling system, for the current situation (2012) and 2020
year, using the same (2012) meteorological conditions as input.
The results were analyzed for the most critical atmospheric
pollutants, namely NO2, O3, SO2, and particulate matter (PM10 and
PM2.5), taking as guide the legislation limit values and its
fulfillment.
The differences between both emissions scenarios indicate a
trend to decrease for the majority of pollutants and activity
sectors, besides high increase rates are foreseen for 2020
projections for some specific sectors, like energy production
(SNAP 1), industrial processes for PM10 and residential combustion
for NOX. The modeling results confirm the efficiency of the
emissions reduction strategies defined by the NEC program for
2020, in particular for particulate matter and SO2, but do not solve
the non–compliance regarding the O3 threshold value for
protection of human health. Additional strategic mitigation actions
need to be designed/developed, with focus on ozone and its
precursors, at local and regional scale.