Introduction: Misunderstanding abou

Introduction: Misunderstanding about Space
In projecting the future development of the world economy, mainstream economists fail to foresee a major part of the coming decades' economic activity because they suffer from a major misunderstanding about space activities that is unfortunately widespread both outside and inside the "space industry". This misunderstanding is held also by leading contemporary historians such as Samuel Huntington (1) and Francis Fukuyama (2), by leading contemporary sociologists such as Alvin Toffler(3), and by well-known economic commentators such as Robert Heilbroner (4) and Jeremy Rifkin (5).

(This misunderstanding might perhaps be called the " Player Piano Error" after the 1952 novel by the author Kurt Vonnegut (6): this describes an apparently plausible but economically unrealistic future condition of the USA in which most of the population is unemployed, spending their lives comfortable but bored on government "make work" schemes, while a small elite manage the highly automated industry that produces goods and services for everyone.)

The mistake underlying these writers' view of the future is the assumption that ordinary people cannot go to space. They believe that it is almost impossibly difficult to get to space, and that only specially selected people with extensive training can survive the "rigours" of space travel. Consequently they assume that space activities will remain trivially small in scale, and that humans' future will be essentially Earth-bound.

This idea is entirely mistaken: in fact it is not very difficult to travel to space - it has been done regularly for nearly 40 years (ie since before such basic features of modern life as satellite communications, colour television, Beatles' music, the Boeing 747, oral contraceptives, credit-cards, video-cassettes, heart pacemakers, micro-computers, microwave ovens, compact discs, optical fibres, the Internet, DNA finger-printing, mobile telephones, GPS and many others); and essentially anyone can travel to and from space without any stress or ill-effects.

Because of these facts, commercial space travel services can grow in future essentially without limit; and they are likely do so once private businesses start to earn profits from them, due to the very large unsatisfied demand for these services - as has recently begun to receive official recognition. This development will have a profound effect on the world economy and on human activities over the next few decades, making the visions of the future described by most economic commentators to date, including those mentioned above, seriously inaccurate.

1.1 Space Tourism Feasible
The main reason why passenger travel services to and from space are not available today is not because they are difficult or even particularly expensive to develop, at least by comparison with current government budgets for civilian space activities - but because government space agencies are not trying to develop them - although they spend $25 billion/year of taxpayers' money. As an example, the largest space agency, NASA, has the " X-33" reusable rocket under development, but it is unpiloted; its intended successor, "Venture Star", is not suitable for passenger-carrying; and it represents barely 2% of NASA's budget. Furthermore, government space agencies have never carried out market research on the demand for space travel services among the general public.

Because of the lack of research on the feasibility of tourism in space, the Japanese Rocket Society ( JRS), a private organisation established in 1956, started a formal "Space Tourism Study Programme" in 1993. A series of papers and reports on the results of this work has been published (7), of which major conclusions to date include:

the " Kankoh-maru" VTOL launch vehicle could carry 50 passengers to and from low Earth orbit at a price of some $25,000/passenger, and could be developed and put into commercial operation within 10 years at a total investment of some $12 billion.
Based on preliminary market research performed in Japan, Canada, Germany and the USA between 1993 and 1995 (8, 9), the popular demand for tourist trips to low Earth orbit ( LEO) is potentially large enough to justify producing some 50 Kankoh-maru vehicles, on which scale this activity could be self-financing.
Anyone in sufficiently good health to ride on a scheduled airline flight could make a short trip to and from space without any ill effects on their health, and without training (unless they were required to play some role in the vehicle's operation). If there was ever any doubt about this, the orbital flight by 77 year-old US Senator John Glenn in October 1998 eliminated it.
These results have recently been endorsed in general terms by NASA (10), by the American Institute for Astronautics and Aeronautics, AIAA, (11) and by independent researchers (12, 13), who confirm that commercial passenger space travel services could grow to a larger scale than all exist

ผลลัพธ์ (ไทย) 1:

บทนำ: ความเข้าใจผิดเกี่ยวกับพื้นที่ในการฉายภาพการพัฒนาในอนาคตของเศรษฐกิจโลก นักเศรษฐศาสตร์กระแสหลักไม่คาดเป็นส่วนสำคัญของกิจกรรมทางเศรษฐกิจมาเป็นเวลาหลายทศวรรษเนื่องจากพวกเขาทุกข์ทรมานจากความเข้าใจผิดสำคัญเกี่ยวกับพื้นที่กิจกรรมที่เป็นที่แพร่หลายแต่ทั้งภายนอก และภาย ใน "พื้นที่อุตสาหกรรม" ความเข้าใจผิดนี้จะจัดขึ้นยัง โดยนำประวัติศาสตร์ร่วมสมัย เช่น Samuel ฮันติงตัน (1) และฟุคุยาม่า Francis (2) โดยพูดชั้นนำร่วมสมัยเช่นอัลวิ Toffler(3) และนักวิจารณ์เศรษฐกิจรู้จักเช่น Robert Heilbroner (4) และ Jeremy Rifkin (5)(เข้าใจผิดนี้อาจบางทีเรียกว่า "พลาดเล่นเปียโน" หลังจากนวนิยายปี 1952 โดย Kurt Vonnegut (6) ผู้เขียน: อธิบายปริมาณที่เห็นได้ชัด แต่ไม่เป็นความจริงทางเศรษฐกิจในอนาคตสภาพของสหรัฐอเมริกาที่ประชากรเป็นผู้ว่างงาน ใช้ชีวิตสะดวกสบายแต่เบื่อรัฐบาล "ทำงาน" แบบแผน ในขณะที่ยอดเล็กจัดการอุตสาหกรรมสูงอัตโนมัติที่ผลิตสินค้าและบริการทุกคนได้)ความผิดพลาดที่อ้างอิงมุมมองของนักเขียนเหล่านี้ในอนาคตเป็นสมมติฐานที่คนธรรมดาไม่สามารถไปยังพื้นที่ พวกเขาเชื่อว่า มันเป็นสูตรยากรับพื้นที่ และว่า เฉพาะบุคคลที่เลือกเป็นพิเศษ มีการอบรมสามารถอยู่รอดได้ "แรงกระแทก" ของพื้นที่ท่องเที่ยว ดังนั้น พวกเขาสมมติว่า จะขนาดเล็ก trivially ขนาดพื้นที่กิจกรรม และอนาคตของมนุษย์ที่จะ Earth-bound เป็นหลักThis idea is entirely mistaken: in fact it is not very difficult to travel to space - it has been done regularly for nearly 40 years (ie since before such basic features of modern life as satellite communications, colour television, Beatles' music, the Boeing 747, oral contraceptives, credit-cards, video-cassettes, heart pacemakers, micro-computers, microwave ovens, compact discs, optical fibres, the Internet, DNA finger-printing, mobile telephones, GPS and many others); and essentially anyone can travel to and from space without any stress or ill-effects.Because of these facts, commercial space travel services can grow in future essentially without limit; and they are likely do so once private businesses start to earn profits from them, due to the very large unsatisfied demand for these services - as has recently begun to receive official recognition. This development will have a profound effect on the world economy and on human activities over the next few decades, making the visions of the future described by most economic commentators to date, including those mentioned above, seriously inaccurate.1.1 Space Tourism FeasibleThe main reason why passenger travel services to and from space are not available today is not because they are difficult or even particularly expensive to develop, at least by comparison with current government budgets for civilian space activities - but because government space agencies are not trying to develop them - although they spend $25 billion/year of taxpayers' money. As an example, the largest space agency, NASA, has the " X-33" reusable rocket under development, but it is unpiloted; its intended successor, "Venture Star", is not suitable for passenger-carrying; and it represents barely 2% of NASA's budget. Furthermore, government space agencies have never carried out market research on the demand for space travel services among the general public.Because of the lack of research on the feasibility of tourism in space, the Japanese Rocket Society ( JRS), a private organisation established in 1956, started a formal "Space Tourism Study Programme" in 1993. A series of papers and reports on the results of this work has been published (7), of which major conclusions to date include:the " Kankoh-maru" VTOL launch vehicle could carry 50 passengers to and from low Earth orbit at a price of some $25,000/passenger, and could be developed and put into commercial operation within 10 years at a total investment of some $12 billion.Based on preliminary market research performed in Japan, Canada, Germany and the USA between 1993 and 1995 (8, 9), the popular demand for tourist trips to low Earth orbit ( LEO) is potentially large enough to justify producing some 50 Kankoh-maru vehicles, on which scale this activity could be self-financing.Anyone in sufficiently good health to ride on a scheduled airline flight could make a short trip to and from space without any ill effects on their health, and without training (unless they were required to play some role in the vehicle's operation). If there was ever any doubt about this, the orbital flight by 77 year-old US Senator John Glenn in October 1998 eliminated it.These results have recently been endorsed in general terms by NASA (10), by the American Institute for Astronautics and Aeronautics, AIAA, (11) and by independent researchers (12, 13), who confirm that commercial passenger space travel services could grow to a larger scale than all exist

ผลลัพธ์ (ไทย) 3:

简介：关于Misunderstanding空间在未来的发展将对世界经济的主流经济学家，主要fail foresee A部分的coming几十年的经济活动，因为他们主要是从一个空间suffer那是误会和不幸的外部和内部两widespread空间。这个“行业”是当代最重要的held误会也由historians（1）如塞缪尔亨廷顿为福山（Francis），和由该2当代社会学家阿尔文3如Toffler（As），和通过well-known经济评论员（如Heilbroner As）和罗伯特·Rifkin 4（5）。（这是可能被误会也许是“错误”的1952 Player钢琴后，作者通过小说的Vonnegut库尔特（一）：这是6 describes plausible但经济条件的unrealistic未来美国在它最的是的，他们的人口unemployed支出在政府bored舒适但工作方案”，使在一个小的精英。”工业生产的自动控制应用和个性化的服务是为大家。这些mistake编剧），或是“未来assumption视图是普通人不能去他们的空间。这是困难的，几乎不相信这是一个空间，一个get和广泛的选择不仅与特别训练的人“不”的生存空间。Consequently rigours旅游活动存在空间assume将是他们在trivially小未来的规模，这将是Earth-bound humans基本上。这个想法是在entirely mistaken事实：它是不非常困难去旅行到空间，它已被40年近regularly DONE在这样的基本功能（即从现代生活中的颜色，包括卫星，television披头士的音乐，波音公司，其747 contraceptives，心脏起搏器，credit-cards，video-cassettes紧凑，ovens，micro-computers，微波炉纤维，光学，discs互联网，移动电话，GPS finger-printing DNA，和许多其他基本上和anyone）；可以从旅行到任何空间和ill-effects应激或没有。因为这些facts商业服务空间，可以增加在未来旅游基本上是没有限制likely和他们；一次做对民营企业中赚取的利润从start到他们很不满意，因为这些服务的需求）- As for有一个recently获得官方begun识别。这将有一个发展和在世界经济profound效应在人类的一些活动，使下，在几十年的未来？？？？？？的最described由经济评论在这些之上，包括日期，所inaccurate喔。1.1 Feasible太空旅游主要原因：为什么passenger旅游服务和可从空间到今天是不是是不是因为他们是困难的甚至，在一个非常贵。particularly发展通过比较与当前政府budgets最小二乘-但是，民用空间活动由于政府对发展空间，是不是想把社-虽然他们25美元亿美元/年的花费纳税人的钱。作为一个例子，有最大的空间机构，美国航空航天局，“火箭”reusable X-33无人驾驶，但它是在发展业务；“创业之星”，intended successor，是不是和它为passenger-carrying suitable；represents NASA ' s of budget barely 2%。此外，政府实施了市场空间，有没有研究社为旅游服务的需求空间在among在一般公众。因为在缺乏研究的可行性，在日本旅游的空间JRS火箭协会（private），一个organisation建立了一个工程，在1956 formal“太空旅游”研究计划在1993。A系列的文件，和结果报告上这已被发表的工作中，主要的7）（包括：conclusions to date“可能”VTOL Kankoh-maru launch车辆行人携带从地球到50 at a和低价格的一些orbit 25,000 / passenger美元，可能是在开发和运行10为商业和投资在一年内总的一些12美元亿美元。在研究基于performed preliminary市场在日本，加拿大，德国和美国之间的1993和1995（），8,9受欢迎的旅游需求，旅行到地球orbit（LEO）是低了一些，大到justify potentially 50 Kankoh-maru生产在这vehicles活性，这可能是self-financing秤。在良好的健康sufficiently剿scheduled航空飞行到一个能骑到一个短的访问数据从空间和概念。在不加任何没有他们的健康和他们的培训，需要对播放unless（一些是在运行车辆的作用。如果有任何关于这是任何怀疑，即美国Senator 77 orbital由约翰格伦在year-old 1998 eliminated日它。结果，在已经有recently These一般由endorsed从NASA（美国麻省理工学院），由该10为Astronautics和Aeronautics，AIAA（11）和研究（独立），通过确认这是12,13旅游服务passenger商业空间成长到一个能比生存更大（所有的规模。