abstract
Among engineers, risk is defined as a product of probability of the occurrence of an undesired event and
the expected consequences in terms of human, economic, and environmental loss. These two
components are equally important; therefore, the appropriate estimation of these values is a matter of
great significance. This paper deals with one of these two components—the assessment of the
probability of vessels colliding, presenting a new approach for the geometrical probability of collision
estimation on the basis of maritime and aviation experience. The geometrical model that is being
introduced in this paper takes into account registered vessel traffic data and generalised vessel
dynamics and uses advanced statistical and optimisation methods (Monte Carlo and genetic
algorithms). The results obtained from the model are compared with registered data for maritime
traffic in the Gulf of Finland and a good agreement is found.
& 2010 E