Our assessment provides no evidence to suggest that the
current drive towards dams on the mainstem of the Mekong
will stop. We conclude that if this proves correct a large
part of the river’s fish production, and the economic,
nutritional and social benefits of this ecosystem service will
be lost in the coming decades. Given this grim prognosis
for Mekong fisheries, we consider two broad scenarios for
the future well-being of people who depend upon these
resources. In the first institutions and communities are
unable to adapt to dams, with the significant loss of fisheries
and other benefits that we foresee. This will in turn
result in large scale loss of livelihoods and nutrition and
social disruption for millions of people in the basin, and
especially in the low income communities of Cambodia,
Laos and Vietnam. This pessimistic scenario dominates the
international environmental discourse on the Mekong
(McCully 2001; Rivers 2009). It raises the prospect of
increased social conflict and rural-to-urban migration in
search of employment (Osborne 2006). Given that 80% of
the basin remains rural and urban employment is still
limited, this scenario also raises the risk of increased
movement of people beyond the confines of the basin
(Homer-Dixon 2001).
In the second scenario, the basin’s institutions and
communities adapt successfully to the environmental,
economic and social changes that arise as a result of dam
construction and the loss of fisheries. This optimistic scenario
dominates the discourse of dam proponents who
argue that hydroelectric power will help drive economic
diversification, and the income generated through the
export of electricity will provide for other investments in
the national economy (World Bank 2009). These will
provide for enterprise development in both rural and urban
settings and employment for those who can no longer earn
income from fishing. These are plausible arguments, and
Asia’s economic growth in recent decades provides reason
for optimism. In contrast, substantial international experience
of dam development suggests that the probability of
successful adaptation by fishing communities in the face of
ecosystem degradation is low (Scudder 2005; WCD (World
Commission on Dams) 2000), especially without first
investing in diversifying and strengthening livelihoods so
that the poor are better able to cope with the changes
arising from dam development. This will be especially
difficult for the Mekong given the limited capacity of
national institutions to pursue integrated approaches to
basin development (UNEP et al. 2006), and the marginal
participation of poor stakeholders in political decision
making (Dore 2003).
Future innovations may help society meet challenges
currently believed to be insurmountable (Hibbard et al.
2007). In the Mekong investments to identify, develop and
apply such innovations are now required urgently. These
will need to tailor the planning, design and operation of
dams to sustain river fisheries and other ecosystem services.
This has so far proved elusive in all other major
rivers with hydropower developments similar to those
proposed for the Mekong, and doing so in the Mekong
presents a formidable challenge. In the absence of such a
breakthrough, current best evidence suggests significant
and rapid loss of natural ecosystems and their services in
the basin, leading to major social and economic impacts.
The search for innovative solutions that avoid such impacts
therefore needs to accelerate, while being accompanied byinvestments that build capacity to adapt to the prospect of
declining fisheries and other ecosystem services. Such
adaptation will inter alia need to consider new livelihood
strategies for large numbers of people living along the
Mekong and its tributaries. Only by pursuing this dual
approach will it be possible to minimize the negative
impacts of future basin development on the poor who
depend on the basin’s natural ecosystems.
Our assessment provides no evidence to suggest that thecurrent drive towards dams on the mainstem of the Mekongwill stop. We conclude that if this proves correct a largepart of the river’s fish production, and the economic,nutritional and social benefits of this ecosystem service willbe lost in the coming decades. Given this grim prognosisfor Mekong fisheries, we consider two broad scenarios forthe future well-being of people who depend upon theseresources. In the first institutions and communities areunable to adapt to dams, with the significant loss of fisheriesand other benefits that we foresee. This will in turnresult in large scale loss of livelihoods and nutrition andsocial disruption for millions of people in the basin, andespecially in the low income communities of Cambodia,Laos and Vietnam. This pessimistic scenario dominates theinternational environmental discourse on the Mekong(McCully 2001; Rivers 2009). It raises the prospect ofincreased social conflict and rural-to-urban migration insearch of employment (Osborne 2006). Given that 80% ofthe basin remains rural and urban employment is stilllimited, this scenario also raises the risk of increasedmovement of people beyond the confines of the basin(Homer-Dixon 2001).In the second scenario, the basin’s institutions andcommunities adapt successfully to the environmental,economic and social changes that arise as a result of damconstruction and the loss of fisheries. This optimistic scenariodominates the discourse of dam proponents whoargue that hydroelectric power will help drive economicdiversification, and the income generated through theexport of electricity will provide for other investments inthe national economy (World Bank 2009). These willprovide for enterprise development in both rural and urbansettings and employment for those who can no longer earnincome from fishing. These are plausible arguments, andAsia’s economic growth in recent decades provides reasonfor optimism. In contrast, substantial international experienceof dam development suggests that the probability ofsuccessful adaptation by fishing communities in the face ofecosystem degradation is low (Scudder 2005; WCD (WorldCommission on Dams) 2000), especially without firstinvesting in diversifying and strengthening livelihoods sothat the poor are better able to cope with the changesarising from dam development. This will be especiallydifficult for the Mekong given the limited capacity ofnational institutions to pursue integrated approaches tobasin development (UNEP et al. 2006), and the marginalparticipation of poor stakeholders in political decisionmaking (Dore 2003).Future innovations may help society meet challengescurrently believed to be insurmountable (Hibbard et al.2007). In the Mekong investments to identify, develop andapply such innovations are now required urgently. Thesewill need to tailor the planning, design and operation ofdams to sustain river fisheries and other ecosystem services.This has so far proved elusive in all other majorrivers with hydropower developments similar to thoseproposed for the Mekong, and doing so in the Mekongpresents a formidable challenge. In the absence of such abreakthrough, current best evidence suggests significantand rapid loss of natural ecosystems and their services inthe basin, leading to major social and economic impacts.The search for innovative solutions that avoid such impactstherefore needs to accelerate, while being accompanied byinvestments that build capacity to adapt to the prospect ofdeclining fisheries and other ecosystem services. Suchadaptation will inter alia need to consider new livelihoodstrategies for large numbers of people living along theMekong and its tributaries. Only by pursuing this dualapproach will it be possible to minimize the negativeimpacts of future basin development on the poor whodepend on the basin’s natural ecosystems.
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