Thank you very much and good morning. It is a pleasure to be here. I have to say that even the sound of SRI in the Rockies has an appealing ring to it. You can probably make just about anything sound better by adding those three little words: "In the Rockies." They're certainly more attractive than the three words I usually hear: "Inside the Beltway."
So I'd like to start by saying thank you to the conference organizers - not only for this wonderful setting, but also for the opportunity to speak with you about what I believe to be one of the most profound challenges of our time: the challenge of global climate change.
But I'd also like to say thank you to all of you. Because after many years of working to protect our environment, I've come to two very important realizations. First, you're better off working with the marketplace than against it. And second, positive change more often than not is the product of committed individuals who take the time to figure out what's right, and then act on it. Socially responsible investing blends those two realities into a very powerful force for change. And I can't tell you how pleased I am to be speaking to the SRI community about meeting the challenge of global warming. So again, thank you.
I'd like to cover a lot of ground today. I'll start with a quick overview of what science tells us about the risks and realities of global warming. Then I'll lay out in broad terms the challenge we face in the decades ahead if we are to avert the worst consequences of climate change. I'll highlight some of the efforts already underway to meet that challenge, both in government and in the business community. And finally, I'd like to talk about the critical role that all of you can and must play in getting more people and more companies to do the right and responsible thing.
So, as any informed discussion of climate change should, let's start with the science. In a word, it's compelling. There is overwhelming scientific consensus on three basic points: the earth is warming; this warming trend is likely to worsen; and human activity is largely to blame. Yes, you can find scientists who will argue otherwise. But these are the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which draws on the expertise of hundreds of climate scientists around the world. They are also the findings of a special, well-balanced panel put together by the National Academy of Sciences at the request of President Bush.
True, the earth's temperature has always fluctuated. But ordinarily these shifts occur over the course of centuries or millennia, not decades. The 1990s were the hottest decade of the entire millennium. The last five years were among the seven hottest on record. Scientists project that over the next century, the average global temperature will rise two to ten degrees Fahrenheit. A ten-degree increase would be the largest swing in global temperature since the end of the last ice age 12,000 years ago.
What are the likely consequences? We can expect rising sea levels, increased flooding and increased drought& more powerful storms, extended heat waves, and other types of extreme weather events. In some communities, global warming is no longer a theoretical matter. The impacts are being felt right now. Just ask the people of Alaska, where roads are crumbling and homes are sagging as the permafrost begins to melt.
Increasingly, we will all feel the impacts in our pocketbooks and our portfolios. Earlier this month, the United Nations Environment Program released a report done in collaboration with some of the world's largest banks, insurers and investment companies. The report found that losses resulting from natural disasters appear to be doubling every 10 years and, if this trend continues, will amount to nearly $150 billion over the coming decade. This summer's wildfires here in the West and floods in central Europe are some of the latest examples. It's impossible to conclusively link any one of these disasters to the broader warming trend. But linked or not, these events give us a very real and very frightening preview of what's in store if the warming trend continues.
So what do we do about it? How do we protect ourselves, and future generations, from the rising risks of global warming? The short answer is that we must fundamentally transform the way we power our global economy. To keep our planet from overheating, we must dramatically reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The primary source of these gases is the combustion of fossil fuels. So our goal over time must be to steadily reduce our reliance on coal and oil and to develop new sources of energy - clean energy.
Clearly, this is a tall order. In fact, it will take nothing short of a new industrial revolution. Some revolutions happen overnight. This one will take time. It takes time to develop and adopt new technologies. It takes time to turn over our capital stock. But we can't afford to let this