2. THE PROJECT
A. Rationale
1. The rationale for the Project is derived from the following partly interrelated elements: (i) the Government's strategy to reduce regional disparities in growth and income, particularly between Bangkok and the rest of the country and to eradicate poverty; (ii) the Bank's Country Operational Strategy for Thailand that supports the Government's efforts in this regard; (iii) the emphasis on rural energy development in the Bank policy for the energy sector in Asia; (iv) external debt management of Thailand in general and PEA in particular; (v) PEA's major investment program and limited access to capital markets; and (vi) developmental role for the Bank in PEA's commercialization, corporatization, and privatization.
2. An important dimension of the rapid economic growth in Thailand has been its concentration in Bangkok and surrounding areas, leading to an underutilization of physical and human resources outside the BMR. The average per capita incomes in the northeast where 35 percent of the population reside and the north where another 20 percent of the population reside are only 30 percent and 40 percent, respectively, of the per capita income in the BMR. Moreover, the BMR's share in gross domestic product has risen from 42 percent in 1981 to nearly 50 percent in the early 1990s. This pattern of growth has led to increasing income disparities. At the same time, although poverty incidence has declined substantially between the 1960s and the 1980s, it has not changed significantly since the early 1980s, with nearly 90 percent of the poor living in the rural areas. The Government is aware of the nature and magnitude of the problem of concentration of wealth in the BMR, and has taken initiatives to promote economic growth in the rest of the country, including the development of adequate basic economic and social services in the rural areas. By contributing to a more balanced economic growth, this strategy is expected to help stem the migration of the population to Bangkok and other major cities.
3. Bank's Country Operational Strategy supports the Government's efforts to achieve a more equitable development, with emphasis on promotion of rural development and regional dispersal of economic activity, by focusing Bank lending on development and upgrading of physical infrastructure in economically disadvantaged regions. In the power sector, this translates into assisting with power system expansion in rural areas. This is fully in line with the Bank's overall policy for the energy sector, which puts particular emphasis on rural energy development, recognizing that adequate energy supplies and appropriate energy utilization technologies in conjunction with other technical, financial, and physical resource inputs are essential to the economic and social development of rural areas in the developing member countries.
4. The proposed Project directly supports the Government's strategy of achieving a more balanced regional development in the country through the dispersal of economic growth, especially in the rural areas. Part of this strategy is to ultimately supply electricity to every household throughout the country. Through the provision of electricity to rural households, the Government hopes to reach social parity by increasing the rural population's economic and social opportunities. The creation of employment opportunities and a gradual establishment of small scale industries induced by electrification are expected to contribute to the alleviation of rural poverty. Surveys undertaken in the rural areas indicate that such expectations are realistic.
5. The maturity structure of the Bank's loan as well as loans from other official sources is important for Thailand because of external debt developments in the last few years. A notable feature is the large increase in the share of private debt in the total external debt from 30 percent in 1988 to about 64 percent in 1993, i.e., over 100 percent rise in just five years. This was the main reason for the increase in the share of short term debt in the total external debt from about 13 percent in 1988 to about 33 percent during the same period, i.e., over 250 percent rise in five years. This trend has continued in 1994 and 1995. The Government is, therefore, concerned about obtaining funds with longer maturities so that the structure of the country's extemal debt remains manageable. Such funds are only obtainable from official sources as bond issues by Thailand in domestic and foreign markets have been in the 5 10 year maturity range.
6. Past capital requirements of PEA were met by loans from bilateral and multilateral aid agencies, internal resources and customer contributions. With $5.6 billion, PEA's investment program for the period FYI 995 FY1999 is almost four times bigger than investments made in the previous five years. PEA does not have access to foreign capital markets yet. In the local capital market, PEA can issue 3 year bonds or obtain, with Government guarantee, 7 10 year loans. Given the magnitude of its investment program and its large scale rural electrification operations, PEA's financing strategy consists of: (i) increasing its internal cash generation; (ii) continuing to obtain long term low cost funding from its traditional bilateral and multilateral lenders; (iii) diversifying its foreign funding sources and currency mix by accessing the Bank; and (iv) tapping to a significant extent the local capital market. The financing plan for the proposed Project reflects this strategy. In the longer term, PEA's profitability is expected to increase as a result of tariff realignment and its customer profile will improve with the dispersal of industries to the provinces. This will allow PEA to gain access to foreign capital markets and to get better terms in the local capital market. During the transition period, however, it is important that PEA continue receiving funds with longer maturities from official sources including the Bank as otherwise, PEA would not be able to meet its substantial capital requirements and maintain a sound financial position.
7. Finally, there is scope for Bank involvement in the institutional development of PEA, which is in transition to a fully-commercialized corporate utility. Besides changes in the tariff structure, there may also be a need for important organizational changes, considering the differences among areas covered by PEA in terms of income and availability of economic and social services. For instance, operations in the other cities outside of Bangkok and in the more economically advanced towns could be split off and privatized. The Project will be the first one for PEA to be financed by the Bank. This will allow the Bank to play a role in PEA's institutional development similar to that in the case of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) and Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA), which now belong to the best power utilities in the region. Through its support of the Project, the Bank will be able to actively participate in the rationalization of the electricity tariffs and to guide PEA toward commercialization, corporatization, and privatization.