After introducing the problem of this paper, this section provides a brief review on the bullwhip-effect research. Analyzing the
bullwhip-effect, the researchers focus on linear supply chain models, whereas the flow of goods is strictly linear with a reverse
flow of information (Chen et al. 2000; Lee et al. 1997a;Metters 1997). If the variance of the orders of one echolon in the supply
chain is higher than the variance of the received orders of the same echelon, then we have a bullwhip effect (Cachon et al. 2007).
Already in the 1960s, Forrester defined in a simplified form the equations describing the relation between inventory and orders
(Forrester, 1961). Since then research worked on a mathematical formulation, simulation and optimization (a.o. Disney and
Towill, 2002,Warburton, 2004). However, even mathematical models demonstrate that the bullwhip effect is an outcome of the
strategic interactions among rational supply chain members (Lee et al. 1997b). This poses further questions about the appropriate
assessment of a specific operational or behavioral contingency