This study contributes useful insights into research concerned
with irrigation availability and its interaction with agriculture
and international trade. We conclude that studies examining the
water–food nexus will likely overstate the negative effect of
irrigation shortfalls on regional and global food supplies, if they
overlook the economic responses to this localized irrigation
scarcity. The first part of these findings is that global irrigation
shortfalls do not always translate into less total regional crop
output. The outcome depends on price effects and regional
supply response. In affected regions where irrigation is less
dominant (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa) crop output may rise due to
higher world prices induced by the overall reduction in global
agricultural capacity. Since irrigated cropland has higher yields
than rainfed agriculture, on average, these regional shortfalls
induce an overall expansion in crop land area which rises by
about 7.6 million hectares.