We investigate whether earnings guidance affects aggregate stock returns through its effects on
expectations about overall earnings performance and/or aggregate expected returns. We find that
aggregate guidance, especially relative levels of quarterly downward guidance, is associated with
analyst- and time-series-based measures of aggregate earnings news. We find more modest evidence
that guidance, again, largely downward guidance, is associated with market returns—market returns
appear to respond to guidance toward the end of each calendar quarter, when most earnings
preannouncements are released, and there is some evidence that firm-level guidance affects market
returns in short windows around its release.